Corporate Bonds
Executive Summary High profile economists Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard have recently cast doubt on the Federal Reserve’s claim that a soft landing is possible for the US economy. We explore the arguments from both sides of the debate and conclude that the economic data will likely…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Investors Are Pricing In A Much More Aggressive Tightening Cycle Than At The Start Of The Year
Investors Are Pricing In A Much More Aggressive Tightening Cycle Than…
Highlights Chart 1Are Expectations Too Dovish?
Are Expectations Too Dovish…
Executive Summary Peak Fed Funds?
Peak Fed Funds…
Executive Summary We posit three conjectures about the US economy: Inflation has an easy path back to 4%, but a move to 2% will require a higher unemployment rate. It will be more difficult to raise the unemployment rate than many anticipate. The Fed will tolerate a higher unemployment rate…
Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom benchmark index by +24bps in Q2/2022, improving the year-to-date outperformance to a solid +72bps. The Q2 outperformance came entirely from the credit side of the portfolio (+35bps), led by underweights to US…
Highlights Chart 1Are Expectations Too Dovish?
Are Expectations Too Dovish…
In this <i>Strategy Outlook</i>, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond.
Executive Summary An Optimal Control Policy
An Optimal Control Policy…
Executive Summary Calculating Trend Inflation
Calculating Trend Inflation…