Consumer

Four decades of robust stock market gains have positioned the equity wealth effect to play a larger role in the business cycle.

China does not produce too much. It spends too little. The only viable way for China to reduce investment without raising unemployment is by lowering national savings. Doing so is likely to be politically challenging, however. This suggests that China will suffer from subpar growth and deflationary pressures for the foreseeable future.

As long as the AI boom keeps booming, all other investment considerations will remain on the back burner. However, if the AI trade fizzles, this would expose deep-seated problems within the global economy, which could very well lead to an economic downturn as early as next year.

News flash: Young urban professionals are not gasping under the weight of an impossible rent burden. Investors should not be led astray by lightly examined popular narratives.

We are increasingly being asked if higher for longer interest rates could help spur consumption by boosting interest income. This report examines household income and balance sheet data to see if they might.