Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2025.
September job gains topped modest expectations, but year-over-year payrolls growth appears to have fallen below stall speed. We remain concerned about US activity.
Q3 results were strong but failed to impress investors, and Q4 will likely prove more challenging. Beneath the surface, earnings diverged sharply: Firms catering to affluent consumers maintained solid momentum, while those reliant on…
In the absence of official government data, investors are turning to alternative sources to gauge the direction of the US economy. Our analysis of this data suggests that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace over…
In Section I, Doug explains how the sharp upward revision to second-quarter consumption in the final GDP estimate has reduced our recession conviction and could lead us to abandon our recession call altogether. The situation is fluid…
The Fed is poised to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, but a follow-up rate cut in December will depend on how the divergence between strong consumer spending and weak employment growth is resolved.
Strong results and constructive commentary from the US’s largest banks are encouraging: Consumers remain in solid shape, and the macro backdrop continues to favor equities. The outlook for the largest banks is positive, and they are…
The most significant divide in the stock market and the economy is the gap between companies positioned to benefit from the AI boom and companies without a link to it. The former are surging while many of the latter are struggling.
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…