China’s housing market adjustment will be protracted, causing several years of sub-par growth in the world’s second largest economy. We go through the major investment implications.
Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that China’s consumption growth will rebound strongly this year following an extremely dismal performance in 2022. China’s post-pandemic re-opening…
Pent-up demand for consumer goods and services will boost Chinese household spending this year. Beyond the next 12 to 18 months, however, structural forces will likely drive Chinese household consumption growth lower than in the pre…
In a recent insight, we highlighted that Chinese housing construction is unlikely to stage a meaningful rebound. Although Beijing has rolled out easing measures to stimulate the ailing property market, our China Investment…
The latest house price data indicate that the worst is over for China’s housing market. The prices of newly built homes across 70 medium and large Chinese cities were broadly unchanged on a month-on-month basis in January.…
Investor sentiment on China and EM has become bullish. Meanwhile, the reflation plays have begun fraying on the edges. Cracks always appear first in the most sensitive reflation plays and then spread to the core. The narratives of…
Two developments this week reinforce our key views for 2023. First, Russia’s threat to reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, while escalating the war in Ukraine, confirms that geopolitical risk will rebound and new oil…
The tempo of China’s and the US’s military operations is picking up sharply. The risk of a sudden, perhaps unintended, escalation of military conflict, therefore, is rising in the South China Sea. So is the risk of another shooting…