US Election
Our US Political strategists assessed the magnitude of the Republican sweep and discuss the path ahead as they take control of Washington. The GOP sweep was a resounding victory as they also clinched the popular vote. The “Blue Wall” (Wisconsin, Michigan,…
Our US Equity strategists prepared a Post-Election US Equity Cheat Sheet. Here are highlights of their recommended positioning for a US equity portfolio in a Red Sweep scenario. Protectionism and pro-growth domestic policies will increase the budget deficit…
Although foreseen by our US & Geopolitical strategists, a “Red Sweep” now makes the macro environment more volatile. After convening for our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting, we offer three main takeaways. First, 2024 is not 2016. To begin with, a…
The bond market had long anticipated a Trump 2.0 administration, but bond yields still spiked as a Trump victory materialized. What’s the path ahead for US rates? Our US bond strategists believe 10-year yields can go up further in the near-term, but will…
Will the prospect of expanding trade tensions lead to more Chinese stimulus, and create an opportunity for Chinese equities? Not necessarily, as the election results were already factored in our EM and China strategists’ views. The Trump victory is not a…
トランプの圧勝は、規制緩和と貿易関税の引き上げを確実にする国民の信任をもたらす。共和党が米下院でかろうじて僅差で勝ちそうなため、財政赤字の拡大や移民制度改革も見込まれる。外交政策はより一方的になり、当初は米国資産が相対的に優位となるだろう。
Given the charged atmosphere surrounding the US election, our Bank Credit Analyst colleagues investigate whether the Fed’s dovish pivot last December was politically motivated. The Fed’s actions appear overly dovish, but the answer lies deeper. Their…
The post-COVID inflation pushed bond yields higher, turning the stock-bond yield correlation negative and taking away bonds’ hedging properties. The relationship normalized this summer as economic data surprised negatively, pushing equities and yields lower.…
いよいよ選挙当日が到来しました。いいえ、このメールに決定的な「銀の弾丸」とも言える予測は含まれていません。これは単に、誰が勝っても選挙が市場にどのような影響を与えるかについての当社の長期予測に過ぎません。
As markets settle into waiting mode for the US election, we provide a concise but not exhaustive cheatsheet for what to expect as the results come out. Our US & Geopolitical strategists’ two most likely outcomes are a “Red Sweep” (GOP White House and…