Technical

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.

マクロクオンツは、米国エクイティがほとんど経済リスクを織り込んでいないと警告している。モデルはエクイティを回避しており、キャッシュへの大幅なオーバーウェイトを推奨している。

Rising bond yields may present an even greater danger to the global economy than the trade war. With equity valuations no longer discounting much economic risk, investors should position themselves defensively.

Are bond yields overextended? We introduce a new global technical indicator that helps spot mean-reversion opportunities and shows which markets are nearing exhaustion.

Five questions, five answers from the road. We unpack what Europe’s biggest investors are worried about right now, from trade‑war whiplash to bund‑versus‑Treasury positioning; and where the real opportunities still lie.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

特別レポート

Do not play the bounce in US and global cyclical assets as Trump backpedals from the trade war. China will talk, but the pace will be slow and the outcome disappointing. Fiscal stimulus will surprise marginally in the EU, China, and even the US, but still may not rescue the business cycle. 

Going into April, MacroQuant recommends a modest underweight on stocks, offset by an overweight on bonds and cash. While MacroQuant is modestly bearish on stocks, we suspect that the downside risks to equities may be greater than what the model assumes.

4月に向けて、マクロクオンツはエクイティを小幅にアンダーウェイトし、その分を債券とキャッシュのオーバーウェイトで相殺することを推奨しています。マクロクオンツはエクイティに対してやや弱気ですが、我々はモデルが想定するよりもエクイティの下方リスクが大きい可能性があると考えています。