インフレーション/デフレーション

Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.

ポストCOVIDの景気拡大を支えた景気刺激策は5年を経て勢いを失い始め、経済は自然に発生する景気後退の方向に向かっていました。DOGEと多方面にわたる貿易戦争がそのタイムテーブルを前倒しした今、我々は改めてリスクオフの推奨を表明します。

The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession. 

With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.

This morning’s weak consumer spending and strong inflation data reinforce our sense that the US economy is heading toward recession.