Renta Fija
Las medidas de estímulo que impulsaban la expansión pos-COVID empezaban a disminuir después de cinco años y encaminaban a la economía hacia una recesión que se produciría de forma orgánica. Ahora que DOGE y la guerra comercial en múltiples frentes han acelerado el calendario, reiteramos nuestras recomendaciones de aversión al riesgo.
Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.
The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession.
With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.
This morning’s weak consumer spending and strong inflation data reinforce our sense that the US economy is heading toward recession.
In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
