Gold

In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Expectations of US import tariffs drove the latest upleg in the prices of precious and industrial metals. However, there are no significant economic or political incentives for the US to impose import tariffs on these metals. Therefore, investors should fade the recent spike in gold, silver, platinum and copper prices. We are initiating a short position on silver as a tactical trade.

As gold keeps making new highs, many clients have asked us whether a gold allocation makes sense for their portfolios and, if so, how big that allocation should be. In this report we try to answer these questions from the perspective of investors with eight different home currencies. Specifically, we analyze the following properties of gold:  1) What drives gold? 2) What is gold’s role in a portfolio? 3) How much gold should investors own?

In lieu of all the geopolitical and economic news in media, this report looks at where next the dollar is likely to trend in the next one-to-three months. Our view is down, though on a cyclical horizon (six-to-twelve months), we would not be short the dollar, for now. 

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays on the run-up in gold prices, a hotter-than-expected US inflation print, and calling the top in Bitcoin.