Elections

Los activos de EE. UU. deberían beneficiarse a corto plazo, ya que los inversores reconocen que los controles y equilibrios de EE. UU. siguen funcionando, al igual que el ciclo electoral. 

Erdogan's rule continues to decline. Social unrest will persist, governance will erode, and the macro backdrop will deteriorate further. We recommend underweighting Turkish assets. 

The US and Canada will resolve their trade dispute quickly, leading to a North American deal and better prospects for future relations, as well as for other US trade deals around the world. But even as tariff threats decline, the US economy will slow, weighing on its neighbors. Canada will fare better than Mexico.

Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.