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Emerging Markets

Thai Economic Growth Will Remain Tepid In H1
The Thai economy has continued to underwhelm its ASEAN peers since the pandemic. It grew at a measly 1.5% in Q3 this year compared to the same period last year. Thai stocks and the currency have sold off as well. That said, the recently elected government…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: Chimerica In Trouble, Part 2

Our 2024 outlook can be encapsulated into just 39 words and three key views. Key view 1: The end of China’s housing boom means the end of the world’s main growth engine. Key view 2: If the Fed and ECB don’t kill the economy, they won’t kill inflation. Key view 3: The AI gold rush will struggle to find any gold. We go through the investment implications for the year ahead.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Don't Bet On A Continued Outperformance Of Aussie Materials Stocks
Australian materials stocks have been outperforming the country’s broad index since mid-August, undoing the sector’s relative losses of the prior months, and bringing the year-to-date gain to 7.7% in absolute terms – above the broad index’s 3.5% increase.…
Daily Insights
Deflationary Pressures Linger In China
China’s CPI and PPI releases delivered a negative signal about the domestic economy. The rate of contraction in the CPI index accelerated to -0.5% y/y in November, the sharpest rate of decline in 3 years and disappointing expectations it would remain at -0.2%…
Daily Insights
The Key Macro Theme for China In 2024
The global investment community has become well aware of many problems facing the Chinese economy including real estate excesses, policymakers’ reluctance to stimulate, as well as elevated debt levels among local governments, enterprises, and consumers. …
Daily Insights
Fade The Positive Surprise From Chinese Exports
On the surface, Chinese export data delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, painting a favorable picture of the global manufacturing cycle. Exports unexpectedly grew on a year-over-year basis in November for the first time since April. The 0.5% y/y…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: China Is In A Deflationary Trap

The overarching macro theme for China in 2024 will be deflation and its impact on the economy, macro policies, and financial markets. Widespread deflation, in combination with high debt levels and falling real estate prices, has unleashed debt deflation and balance sheet recession dynamics. The latter are rendering monetary policy inefficient.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Chinese Stocks: Cheap For A Reason
China’s CSI 300 equity index closed at its lowest level since early 2019 on Tuesday following news that Moody’s downgraded its outlook for China’s credit rating from stable to negative. The report cited the potential impact of financial stress among…
Daily Insights
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Key Views: Geopolitics In 2024

Global instability will continue in 2024 – whatever happens afterward. Slowing economies will exacerbate already high geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty stemming from the US election and foreign challenges to US leadership. Overweight government bonds, defensive sectors, the Americas versus other regions, aerospace/defense stocks, and cyber-security stocks.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
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Complacency In Credit Markets

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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