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Emerging Markets

Brazil’s Central Bank Is Being Politicized
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) has cut the Selic rate by 50 basis points in each of the past four meetings and has alluded to maintaining this size of cuts for the coming meetings. Governor Roberto Campos Neto stated last month that he aims to bring…
Daily Insights
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A Tipping Point For Balance Of Payments?

This report examines if investors should worry about a balance of payments crisis in the next 3-to-6 months.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Indian Stocks Are Vulnerable
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Indian stocks, which benefitted immensely from foreign portfolio inflows and are now very expensive, remain vulnerable to any global risk-off sentiment. The new year marked a new high for…
Daily Insights
China's Economic Outlook Remains Gloomy
Chinese data continues to send a pessimistic signal for domestic risk assets and China plays. Although at 5.2% in Q4, GDP growth stands above the official target, it underwhelmed anticipations of 5.3%. Moreover, other data releases reveal that the economy…
Daily Insights
PBoC Unexpectedly Holds Medium-Term Rate Steady
China’s central bank unexpectedly held the medium-term policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on Monday, surprising expectations of a 10 basis point cut. Given that deflationary forces dominate China’s economy, the decision to stand pat underscores that policymakers…
Daily Insights
China's Reaction To Taiwan Vote
China will increase economic and military pressure on Taiwan but there is no basis for immediate full-scale war. That is the takeaway from the Taiwanese election on January 13, which returned the nominally pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party to the…
Daily Insights
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Taiwan Gridlock: Short TWD-USD

Taiwan’s election will lead to serious Chinese military and economic pressure but not full-scale war. War is a long-term concern. Investors should short TWD-USD.

Geopolitical Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Matt Gertken, Arthur Budaghyan
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Global Green Energy Rush And Its Impact On Copper

The global green energy rush faces mounting headwinds. Additional global solar and wind capacity installations will have considerable growth reduction this year. Copper prices did not drop much in 2023 due to surging demand from green power build-up. Green power will be less positive for copper demand in 2024 than in 2023. We expect more downside in global renewable energy stocks.

China Investment Strategy
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A New World Trade Order?

We share the edited transcript of a webinar we participated in discussing global trade, trade wars and tariffs, as well as de-risking strategies.

European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso
Deflationary Headwinds Dominate In China
On the surface, domestic economic data painted a mixed picture of conditions in China at the end of 2023. On the positive side, the December trade data beat expectations. The dollar value of Chinese imports expanded by 0.2% y/y, surprising anticipations…
Daily Insights

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