CoreMacro
| US
US macro analysis on the Fed, the consumer, and fiscal policy, and the investment calls that follow.
The agreement to freeze oil production should reduce tail risks, even if it does not improve overall corporate sector health and profits.
Stay cautious. The Fed is only beginning to acknowledge what markets already realize. Eventually, they will back off, which reduces the odds of a further sustained equity decline. So far, however, the central bank is lagging deflationary forces acting on the U.S. economy, markets and profits. The weak ISM surveys are consistent with this. The risk is that employment follows suit.
Any recovery in risk assets and selloff in safe havens is unlikely to extend into the cyclical horizon.
Equity selloff alone will not catch the Fed's eye unless there is an outright crash.