We give a one-third probability of a federal government shutdown. It probably will not happen before November. At worst, government shutdowns only cause temporary market volatility....
The US Treasury safe haven status is being seriously questioned. We assess whether US Treasuries are still unrivaled or which bond markets and assets are gaining ground. We do so by breaking down which global bond markets are best positioned to absorb risk-off flows in a shifting macro regime....
Powell’s “risk management cut” underscores the Fed’s shift toward growth risks, reinforcing long duration with steepeners. Risk management is central to monetary policy. It determines how policymakers balance uncertainty and decide which mistake is less costly: Cutting too soon and risking inflation...
While it is not yet time to bet against risk assets, we push back on the increasingly popular ideas that the wealthiest households and/or AI-related capex can keep the expansion going despite the wobbling labor market....
One year in, the EU is progressing slowly in implementing Mario Draghi's recommendations to restore Europe’s competitiveness. The lack of progress is due more to the various pushbacks from European capitals and the lack of proper funding than a lack of ambition. Our overall assessment remains positi...
In this report, penned by BCA’s Global Investment Strategy team, our colleagues examine a wide range of strategies designed to capitalize on stock market anomalies. GIS will be using a mixture of these strategies for its new PowerTrades service....
Germany is moving forward with implementing the large fiscal and defence spending announced earlier this year. Fiscal reforms are also positive, though they will fall short of expectations....
US GDP growth appears to have accelerated even as employment growth has faltered. We will make a final decision in early October when we publish our next Strategy Outlook, but most likely, we will cut our 12-month US recession probability to 40%-to-50% from 60% and turn tactically neutral on stocks,...
According to our latest client poll, most respondents are optimistic about the Generative AI's potential. Investors remain divided on whether current equity valuations reflect a bubble. Economic concerns continue to center on bond yields and the risk of stagflation, while relatively few clients anti...
In this report penned by BCA’s Global Investment Strategy team, our colleagues examines a wide range of strategies designed to capitalize on stock market anomalies. We incorporate many of these factors into our own model. Our colleagues found that while most of these factors have waned over time, th...
