The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio significantly underperformed in December, returning -5.4%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned -2.8%. Through the final quarter of 2024, USHQ also underperformed vs. benchmark, returning just 0.26%. Though disappointing, with BCA’s house view still expecting a rece...
In this Special Report, BCA’s Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist Matt Gertken discusses the top five “Black Swan” risks for 2025, from Trump to China....
Stocks have climbed the wall of worry and we are about to see what is on the other side (it won’t be pretty). We will be using our MacroQuant model to determine when to go maximally underweight equities....
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US military action across the Americas, and an internationally coordi...
In this week’s report, we present our key takeaways from China's two notable adjustments recently implemented: an upward revision to its 2023 GDP and the reduction of the USD weighting in the RMB Exchange Rate Index....
It is rare for BCA Research strategists to be at the literal scene of macro calamities. The denizens of our GeoMacro team – including yours truly – live within the mandatory evacuation zones of the now increasingly on fire Los Angeles. Contrary to the conventional view, this does not make for a sobe...
US bond yields will move higher, unleashing a storm in global financial markets. In the US, rising corporate bond yields will produce a selloff in share prices. In Mainstream EM, rising domestic and USD bond yields will weigh on share prices....
In most developed economies, rising inflation expectations will lift them further above the 2 percent target, limiting the scope for further interest rate cuts. But in Japan, rising inflation expectations will lift them up to the BoJ’s 2 percent target, removing the BoJ’s justification for its zero-...
