Global Macro & Market Outlook
A concise view of the global cycle, market risks, and the portfolio implications that matter.
Lots Of Battles, No War
An investor might not guess it from the Trump administration’s impatience with bond-market, military and tariff roadblocks, but the US economy is faring just fine. Asset allocators should remain fully…
Hormuz, Europe, Japan And The Fed Sphinx
Section I outlines BCA’s views on the US-Iran conflict, Europe’s near-term outlook, the currency and bond selloffs in Japan and the early days of the Warsh Fed. In Section II, Roukaya, Matt, and Artem…
The Summer Pause That Refreshes
Section I maps how the broad distribution of wealth gains is supporting US consumption. Section II examines how countries can meet swelling electricity demand. The winners will find paths to build the…
An Ocean Apart
In Section I, Doug revisits the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for growth in Europe and the US. In Section II, Jonathan explores whether Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed Chair…
Capex, The Other K-Shaped Economy
In Section I, Doug compares projected S&P 500 earnings and current capex to past cycles at the same stage of their expansions while also exploring the K-shaped bifurcation in business investment. In S…
Steering Portfolios Through The Strait Of Hormuz
In Section I, Doug argues that investors should maintain mildly defensive positioning while awaiting the restoration of normalized shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In Section II, Jonathan…
