Commodity Markets & Energy Outlook
Connect supply, demand, geopolitics, inflation, and the macro cycle to opportunities and risks across commodity and energy markets.
After The Midterms: Commodity Divergences Have Further To Run
Commodities have diverged sharply in recent months. We explain why energy prices are likely to stay elevated after the US midterms, why gold’s slide should prove limited, and how we are positioning fo…
Refined Product Prices Will Follow Crude’s Lead
Crude has led the latest rally, leaving refined product prices behind and crack spreads narrower. We explain why the spread compression is unlikely to continue and why product prices will follow crude…
Ags: A Correction, Not A Top
Ags have tumbled from overbought highs, and further near-term weakness is likely. But a “super” El Niño and an ongoing energy shock are setting the stage for the next rally.
Why There’s A Floor Under Brent
Middle Eastern crude exports are back at pre-war levels, yet Brent remains above $100/bbl. We explain why more barrels haven’t meant lower prices, and why policymakers have no clean fix. Even if Putin…
FICC Q4 Strategy Outlook: Climbing The Wall Of Worry
Politics, wars, a global tightening cycle, doubts over AI capex: the wall of worry keeps rising. But the spark that would topple risk assets is missing. Our Q4 FICC outlook explains why to stay long r…
US Diesel Export Ban: A Short-Term Fix With Global Fallout
Record diesel prices and mounting political pressure make some form of US export restriction likely. But it wouldn't be a clean solution. We reveal why relief would be fleeting, who would pay the pric…
