Capital Market Assumptions

Independent long-term return, risk, and correlation assumptions for more defensible allocation decisions.

PMA Quarterly Outlook: 2026 Capital Market Assumptions – Welcome Asset-Based Lending!

Our new Private Credit taxonomy adds granularity to the opaque lending universe and introduces Asset-Based Lending—attractive entry points, elevated risks. Private Real Estate delivers the largest upg…

by Brian Payne

Jan 29, 2026

2025 GAA Capital Market Assumptions: Revamped

We revamp several of our methodologies in this edition of our return assumptions. We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.1% over the next 10 years. This is slightly below the return assum…

by Lucas Laskey, Xiaoli Tang, Chen Xu, Juan Manuel Correa

Aug 29, 2025

PMA Quarterly Outlook: 2025 Capital Market Assumptions

Asset class expectations show mixed shifts from 2024, with Real Estate seeing substantial upgrades and Private Equity benefiting from Venture Capital improvements. Private Credit return expectations d…

by Brian Payne

Jan 31, 2025

Product

Private Markets & Alternatives

PMA Quarterly Outlook: 2024 Capital Market Assumptions

Investors should be tactically tilting allocations towards Direct Lending, Distressed Debt, and Directional Hedge Fund strategies at the expense of Real Estate, Private Equity, and Diversifier Hedge F…

by Brian Payne

Jan 22, 2024

Our Strategists

Juan Manuel Correa

Head of Portfolio Construction

Juan helps Chief Investment Officers and asset allocation teams answer one of the most critical questions in investing: how to structure a global multi-asset portfolio to maximize risk-adjusted...

Brian Payne

Head of Portfolio Construction | Portfolio & Private Markets

Brian Payne helps investors understand the risks, opportunities, and portfolio implications across private markets and alternative investments. His work focuses on developing forward-looking views...