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2025 GAA Capital Market Assumptions: Revamped

by Lucas Laskey,    Xiaoli Tang, Associate Strategist   Chen Xu, Research Analyst    Juan Manuel Correa, Chief Strategist  

We revamp several of our methodologies in this edition of our return assumptions. We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.1% over the next 10 years. This is slightly below the return assumptions for US pension funds. Investors can obtain better returns by diversifying internationally and to alternative assets.

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