Sentiment
September's Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 81.9 from 88.6, the lowest since 2014 and well below the 89 consensus, highlighting rising risks to US consumer and reinforcing the case for a more patient FOMC. The decline was led by the…
The September ZEW survey sent mixed signals, reinforcing our view that European growth momentum is unlikely to accelerate materially and supporting an overweight on Bunds. Euro area expectations fell to 25.8 from 31.4. In Germany, expectations missed…
The August Ifo beat makes Germany’s recovery more credible, but hard activity is still stabilizing rather than accelerating. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 88.8 from 86.7, well above consensus, with both expectations and current conditions improving.…
The August ZEW was stronger than estimates, but weak current conditions still point to limited growth upside in the eurozone. Germany’s ZEW beat estimates for both current conditions, at -61.1, and expectations, at 34.2. The euro area expectations component…
The US remains in a growth sweet spot, with a stabilizing labor market supporting consumption without adding to inflation. The July Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed estimates, falling to 90.8 from 92.2. The decline was driven by consumers’…
The July German IFO beat estimates, but the improvement was driven by expectations while current conditions weakened. The headline index rose on a jump in expectations, even as the current conditions index missed estimates and declined. The report is…
The Euro Area’s July ZEW survey pointed to a sharp improvement in sentiment alongside a lagging economy. The Euro Area expectations index rose to 23.4 from 9.5 in June, while Germany's beat estimates, climbing to 26.3 from 10.5. However, current conditions…
The preliminary July University of Michigan survey pointed to improving sentiment and anchored inflation expectations. The survey beat estimates, with the headline index rising to 54.4 from 49.5, driven by both consumers’ assessment of current conditions and…
The June ZEW was mixed, with Germany’s expectations beating estimates while current-conditions measures worsened further. The survey period included Monday, June 15, when the US-Iran deal was announced. That split between European expectations and…
Our US Investment strategists remain constructive on the US economy as there is no evidence of overheating or looming stagflation. The S&P 500 has risen for eight straight weeks, supported by strong earnings. With 94% of constituents reporting, this…