Europe

Lower Eurozone Inflation Expectations Foreshadow Slower Wage Growth

Eurozone households are becoming less concerned about the near-term outlook for inflation. The results of the latest ECB Consumer Expectations survey show a significant drop in median 12-month inflation expectations from 5.0% in March to 4.1% in April – the…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Markets Are Failing The Rorschach Test

What’s going on? The market-weighted stock market is up. But the equally-weighted stock market is not up. Neither is credit. Neither are industrial metal prices. Neither is the oil price, despite two waves of OPEC output cuts. We explain the dichotomy. Plus: European basic resources stocks can rebound, but Netherlands is likely to reverse.

3 years ago

Essentials

Falling German Factory Orders: Bad News For Eurozone Stocks

Tuesday’s German factory orders release sent a disappointing signal about industrial demand. Although the pace of decline eased from -10.9% m/m to -0.4% m/m in April, it fell below expectations of a 2.8% m/m increase. Both capital and consumer goods orders…

3 years ago

Essentials

Swedish Economic Warning Signs

The Swedish manufacturing PMI declined to 40.6 in May, the lowest level since June 2020. This deterioration in Sweden’s manufacturing activity not only reflects the domestic economy, but it also highlights weaknesses in the global industrial cycle. Sweden…

3 years ago

Essentials

US Services ISM Disappoints

The ISM PMI sent a disappointing signal about US service sector activity in May. The headline index unexpectedly fell from 51.9 to 50.3 – the weakest level since December and surprising expectations of an improvement to 52.4. The details of the release were…

3 years ago

Essentials

The Euro Is Here To Stay

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, although the ECB faces important challenges in the coming year, its success in maintaining price stability and in preserving the euro’s integrity are bullish for the euro because it makes…

3 years ago

CoreMacroFICC

Happy 25th Birthday, ECB

Special Report

It is easy to claim that the ECB is failing in light of today’s elevated inflation readings. Yet, the reality is more subtle and the ECB’s performance lays the ground for stronger growth ahead.

3 years ago

Europe Bonds Currencies

Essentials

Will UK Equities Continue Underperforming?

In our May In Review Insight, we showed that last month, UK stocks posted the lowest z-score among all major global equity markets, underperforming their Eurozone peers. What explains this relative weakness? The chart above reveals that the performance of…

3 years ago

Essentials

Is It Time To Bet On The NOK?

In our FX strategists’ models, the Norwegian krone is one of the cheapest currencies. On its own, valuation is usually not a sufficient catalyst to unlock value in any currency. That said, there are a few signs that the Norwegian krone is approaching levels…

3 years ago

FICC

The Non-US Implications Of Our Recent US Duration Upgrade

In this report, we follow up on the upgrade to our US duration stance from last week with a review of our rates views and government bond allocations outside the US. We conclude that while we now find US Treasuries to be more attractive from a value perspective, even better value is available in euro area and UK government debt.

3 years ago

Bonds

Europe

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