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Currencies

Cool Inflation Print Means Riksbank Will Cut
Headline inflation in Sweden came in at 4.1% in March. Lower food prices as well as lower inflation for recreation and culture were the main contributors to the drop. The biggest positive contributor was housing due to higher mortgage costs. The CPIF…
Daily Insights
A Tactical Buying Opportunity For EUR/USD
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a tactical buying opportunity for EUR/USD is approaching. However, this will not lead to a renewed bull market, only to a bounce toward 1.10-1.12.  Sentiment toward the euro is becoming…
Daily Insights
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A Whiff Of A Late Cycle?

In the short run, global risk assets are vulnerable due to rising oil prices and bond yields. Cyclically, a global economic downturn will weigh on global risk assets.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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Rangebound Euro

EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Carry Trades Point To A Global Growth Recovery
The total return of a carry strategy that is long high-yielding currencies like the Brazilian real and the South African rand and short a funding currency like the Japanese yen is pointing to a recovery in global growth. Carry trades distribute liquidity…
Daily Insights
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The ECB Signals A June Rate Cut

At today’s monetary policy meeting, the ECB gave strong hints that rate cuts will begin as soon as the next meeting in June. In this Insight, we share our thoughts on today’s meeting and discuss the implications for European bond yields and the euro.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Currency Implications Of A Dovish BoC
In terms of interest rate bets, markets are now roughly neutral on whether the Fed or Bank of Canada move the most in the next 12 months. BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service’s bias is that it will be the BoC (with more cuts).  Thus, a…
Daily Insights
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The Market Implications Of A Dovish BoC

In this insight, we calibrate our investment views based on the latest Bank of Canada decision.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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Gold And Bitcoin Joined At The Hip

Gold and bitcoin are conceptually joined at the hip because the value of both comes from their ‘non-confiscatability’ by inflation, by bank failure, and in the case of bitcoin, by state expropriation. The sharp recent rallies in both gold and bitcoin reflect that the market has suddenly upped the value of non-confiscatability, and a plausible explanation is that recent US inflation data show that the journey to sustained 2 percent inflation has stalled, raising the risk that the Fed might balk at finishing the journey. Plus: JPM, CL, and USD/CHF are tactical reversal candidates.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Bitcoin Speculative Shorts Are Not What They Seem
Short speculative positions on Bitcoin at the CME are near theie highest level on record. Some financial commentators have suggested that this bearish positioning in bitcoin could act as kindle and spark a short squeeze. But looking at raw speculative…
Daily Insights

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