After the election, investors have begun to price in a repeat of the first Trump presidency. The market is expecting Trump to enact a flurry of policies that will unleash a year of growth like 2017. But we believe the consensus is wrong. Investors are playing the man and not the macro. The economic ...
Investors are overstating the positive fiscal impact of the Trump presidency. The bond market will have something to say about the scope for further deficit expansion via tax cuts. As such, the trade after the trade of the Trump 2.0 administration may involve less growth out of the US, not more. In ...
The value of both gold and bitcoin comes from the collective belief that they are the non-confiscatable assets to own in a fiat monetary system, as an insurance against hyperinflation, banking system failure, or state expropriation. As global wealth rises, the value of both gold and bitcoin will als...
Trump's presidential re-election makes US tariff rate hikes on Chinese exports an imminent threat. Beijing has made extensive efforts to derisk the domestic economy and diversify trade away from the US. However, China is no better positioned today than it was in 2018 to withstand the impact of a ren...
The threat of import tariffs and US growth outperformance versus the rest of the world will continue supporting the US dollar rally over the near term. Nevertheless, the Trump administration’s medium- to long-term goal will be a US dollar devaluation to boost the country’s manufacturing competitiven...
The month of November has brought us S&P 6,000! President Trump has won a “Red Sweep” (as we expected all year) and has ushered in a regime change in America. For now, we are open to chasing momentum. However, the biggest risk to the market are bond yields, which should rise as investors start to pr...
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a few trade ideas that arise from the divergences in signals amongst ...
