Sweden
Our European and FX strategists see the Iranian war and resulting energy shock reversing Nordic fortunes, and favor Norway over Sweden. Sweden's recovery is stalling while Norway reaps a windfall from the same shock. Our colleagues note that Sweden's exposure…
The war in Iran and the energy shock are driving a reversal of Nordic fortunes: Sweden’s recovery is faltering just as Norway receives a welcome energy windfall. Favor Norwegian over Swedish equities and buy NOK/SEK. In rates, fade aggressive Riksbank hike expectations and downgrade Norwegian government bonds to neutral.
July's upside surprise in Swedish core inflation should not derail an on-hold Riksbank. Headline CPIF eased to 0.7% y/y (-0.3% m/m), broadly in line with estimates. CPIF excluding energy accelerated to 0.6% y/y (0.4% m/m), above both economists’ estimates and…
Subdued Swedish inflation should keep the Riksbank on hold. June headline CPIF eased to 1.3% y/y (0.3% m/m) from 1.5% (0.9%), and CPIF excluding energy slowed to 0.4% y/y (0.6% m/m) from 0.5% (0.7%). Both were marginally above estimates, but disinflation has…
The Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75% for the sixth straight meeting, as expected, but shifted its guidance in a hawkish direction. The central bank signaled a higher probability of a hike this year, citing rising inflationary pressures. This is a shift…
The Riksbank left rates unchanged and is likely to stay on hold, as soft inflation and weaker growth leave little case for tightening. The policy rate was left at 1.75%, as expected, and the Riksbank signaled it will remain on hold in the near term. This…
Sweden’s inflation undershoot reflects pre-conflict krona strength; rising energy costs have yet to feed through. Preliminary March inflation was below estimates and the Riksbank’s projections. Headline CPIF eased to 1.6% y/y from 1.7%, while core CPIF (ex.…
Sweden’s improving growth and supportive policy backdrop reinforce the krona’s strong performance. The Swedish krona had its best year in over a decade in 2025, gaining 6% against the EUR and 20% against the USD. Beyond broad US dollar weakness,…
Early indicators suggest global growth momentum may be picking up, with Swedish data a useful proxy. Given Sweden’s exposure to European and global supply chains through trade, its indicators tend to pick up early global growth signals. Swedish exports are…
This week, our screeners explore opportunities in the Swedish stock market, Canadian gold-exposed and domestic-focused sectors, and ex-tech GenAI names.