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OUTLOOK 2024: The End Of The Easy Money Era

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.

The Bank Credit Analyst
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Global Smartphone Demand: An Anemic Recovery In 2024?
Special Report

Global smartphone demand will likely find a bottom in 2024Q1 and rebound modestly between 2024Q2 and Q4. Competition in the global smartphone market will intensify. Chinese phone makers will gain market share from Apple and Samsung. Continue overweighting Taiwanese stocks, including tech, within the global equity benchmark.

China Investment Strategy
Caution: Preliminary Releases Are Subject To Revision
The US nonfarm payroll report is an important monthly data release that investors scrutinize for updates on the state of the US labor market and economy more broadly. In the current context, the updates help gauge whether the US economy is heading toward…
Daily Insights
Inventory Cycles And Markets
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should focus on fluctuations in final demand rather than inventories. A common narrative endorsed by many market participants is that inventory restocking worldwide will support the…
Daily Insights
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The Immaculate Disinflation Of 2023, Explained

Our kinked Phillips curve framework predicted the immaculate disinflation of 2023. That same framework is now warning that the global economy is heading towards a recession in the second half of 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Repairing Eurozone Confidence
Confidence is on the mend in the Euro Area. The rebounding ZEW growth expectations index reveals that investors are becoming more optimistic. The German IFO's business climate index inched higher in October for the first time since April, suggesting that…
Daily Insights
On Shifting Market Narratives
After dipping into negative territory between June and early August, the Global Economic Surprise Index has since rebounded, signalling an improvement in economic momentum. Initially, this rebound was isolated to the US. However, the trend has been broadening…
Daily Insights
Taiwanese Export Orders: Signal Or Noise?
To the extent that Taiwanese export orders act as a bellwether for global trade dynamics, we often monitor the release to gain a sense of the state of the manufacturing cycle. On this front, the October update provided a positive signal. The pace of decline…
Daily Insights
Waiting For The Optimal Opportunity To Turn Defensive
The soft-landing narrative is gaining momentum, pushing equities higher and potentially offering investors a better entry point to position against it. Financial markets appear to have been surprised by the comforting inflation picture painted by the…
Daily Insights
In Europe, The Magic Eight Dominate
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Magic Eight are the European counterpart to the US’ Magnificent Seven. The dominance of the so-called Magnificent Seven in the US S&P 500 is well-documented. Europe has its own…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics