Technical
Highlights Beyond the healthcare vote and its implication for Trump's fiscal stimulus, other risks lurk in the background. Market complacency is at historical extremes but Chinese reflation is rapidly dissipating. The euro could benefit in this…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Contrary to popular perception, non-cyclical sectors have led the market so far this year, while deep cyclical sectors are breaking down, in relative performance terms. Our models point to more of the same ahead. The…
Highlights The global economy has turned the cap and is on a sustainable uptrend. Yet, the AUD and CAD have over-discounted the improvements and are at risk of suffering a disappointment if global manufacturing activity remains firm but does not…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy A relapse in the global financials sector threatens to spill into U.S. financials as credit growth sinks. Bank equities are the most vulnerable to such a phase, given their reliance on rising interest rate expectations…
Highlights Risk assets have rallied smartly, yet key indicators like the relative performance of Swedish stocks or the price of kiwi equities are not corroborating these moves. With the Fed now very likely to increase rates in March, the broad-trade-…
Highlights U.S. Treasuries - Fair Value: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield now appears 7 bps expensive on our model. Investors should maintain below-benchmark duration and continue to monitor bullish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar for signals about the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The market has quietly adopted a less cyclical sectoral tone since yearend, a trend that could amplify over the coming months, even if overall appreciation persists. Defense stocks have grown into previously extended…
The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to capture very tactical…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Add the S&P asset manager & custody banks index to the high-conviction overweight list. Prospects for higher interest rates bode well for a catch up phase with the rest of the financials sector. Initiate a long S…
Highlights Duration: Growth, inflation & investor risk-seeking behavior remain bond-bearish in both the U.S. & the Euro Area. Market technicals, both in terms of oversold momentum and heavy short positioning, are the biggest headwind to higher…