New Zealand

Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of the Monitors are now below the zero line, indicating the need for continued easy global monetary policy to help mitigate the COVID-19 recession (Chart of the Week). Central bankers have…

Highlights The pillars of dollar support continue to fall, but the missing catalyst is visibility on the trajectory of global growth. For now, we remain constructive on the DXY short term, but bearish longer term. Market internals and currency technicals have become supportive of pro-cyclical…

Highlights Policy Responses: The COVID-19 pandemic has become a full-blown global crisis and recession. Governments and central bankers worldwide are now responding with aggressive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. Markets will not respond positively to such stimulus, however, until there is…

Highlights The latest interest rate cuts by central banks confirms the narrative that the authorities view economic risks as asymmetrical to the downside. This all but assures that competitive devaluation will become the dominant currency landscape in the near future. If the virus proves to…

Highlights The elevated uncertainty about global growth stemming from the COVID-19 virus in China has not only made investors more anxious, but central bankers as well. This means that, only six weeks into the year, policymakers may already be having to rethink their expected strategies for…

Highlights Net inflows into US assets have been rolling over since the beginning of 2019, given that the repatriation associated with the 2017 tax cuts was a one-off effect. Besides, fading interest rate differentials are making US Treasuries less attractive, which is a headwind for the…

Dear Client, In addition to this short weekly report, you will also receive our 2020 outlook, published by the Bank Credit Analyst. Next week, I will be on the road visiting clients in South Africa. I hope to report my discussions and findings the following week. Best regards, Chester Ntonifor…

Highlights Global Growth: The latest readings from our global leading economic indicator and the global ZEW index show further improvement in growth momentum. Maintain a below-benchmark stance on global duration, favoring inflation-linked bonds/swaps over nominal bond exposure, while…