New Zealand
Your feedback is important to us. Please take our client survey today. Highlights US Election & Duration: We estimate that there is an 80% probability of a US election result that will give a lift to US Treasury yields via increased fiscal stimulus. Those are strong enough odds to justify a…
Highlights US Election & Duration: We estimate that there is an 80% probability of a US election result that will give a lift to US Treasury yields via increased fiscal stimulus. Those are strong enough odds to justify a move to a below-benchmark cyclical US duration stance on a 6-12 month…
Highlights We remain bearish on the US dollar over the next 12 months. The best vehicle to express this view continues to be the Scandinavian currencies (NOK and SEK). Precious metals remain a buy so long as the dollar faces downside. However, we remain more bullish on silver than gold. Go…
To all clients, Next week, in lieu of publishing a regular report, I will be hosting a webcast on September 15th at 10 am EDT, discussing our latest views on global fixed income markets. Sign up details for the Webcast will arrive in your inboxes later this week. Best…
Highlights Negative Rates: The persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic is intensifying pressure on policymakers in many countries to provide more stimulus. The odds that a new central bank will join the negative policy interest rate club are increasing. UK vs. New Zealand: Recent comments from…
Buy CAD/NZD For A Trade…
Dear clients, This week we are sending you a Research Note on balance of payments across the G10, authored by my colleague Kelly Zhong. With unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, balance-of-payment dynamics will become an even more important driver of currencies over the next few years.…
Highlights The underperformance of value versus growth has been a reason behind the dollar bull market rather than a consequence of it. The rationale is that the catalyst for any sector to outperform is return on capital rather than the cost of capital. The outperformance of health care and…
Highlights Our intermediate-term timing models suggest the US dollar is broadly overvalued. We are maintaining a modest procyclical currency stance (long NOK, GBP and SEK), but also have a portfolio hedge (short USD/JPY). Go long a basket of petrocurrencies versus the euro. Stay short…
NZD/CAD Has Upside
NZD/CAD…