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Monetary

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Complacency In Credit Markets

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Sketching Out A Near-Term Trading Range For Bond Yields

Treasury yields will sketch out a range between now and Q1 2024, with the upside determined by inflation and the downside determined by labor markets.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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New Zealand: High Rates For A Lot Longer

In this Insight, we discuss the outlook for monetary policy in New Zealand after this week’s RBNZ policy meeting, and introduce related fixed income and currency trade ideas.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
The Last Hurrah?
Q3 US real GDP was revised higher in the second estimate that was released on Wednesday. The 5.2% q/q annualized increase beat expectations of a more muted upwards revision to 5.0% q/q from the advance estimate of 4.9% q/q. In particular, updates to…
Daily Insights
The Euro Enjoys Some Tailwinds
Recent Euro Area economic data have been sending a less pessimistic signal. Wednesday’s releases are in line with this trend. The European Commission’s confidence indicator shows a mild improvement in economic sentiment in November – confirming the recent…
Daily Insights
The RBNZ Joins The "Higher For Longer" Club
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its key interest rate steady at 5.5% at the November policy meeting yesterday.  That decision was as expected, but the messaging surrounding the announcement was surprisingly hawkish.  The RBNZ statement…
Daily Insights
The Easy Money Era Is Likely Over
Image According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, events that have occurred since the onset of the pandemic have highlighted that the easy money era that prevailed from 2009-2021 is very likely over. The…
Daily Insights
On The Drivers Of BTP-Bund Spread Compression
After widening since mid-year, the spread between German bunds and Italian BTPs has been narrowing over the past month. What is driving this move? Our Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist highlighted in Tuesday's BCA Live & Unfiltered livestream that both…
Daily Insights
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OUTLOOK 2024: The End Of The Easy Money Era

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.

The Bank Credit Analyst
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Riksbank Post-Mortem And The Lessons For Other Currencies

This report looks at the prospects for the Swedish krona, following the pause by the Riksbank.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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