Health Care

Highlights The relative performance of developed market (DM) versus emerging market (EM) equities just corresponds to the relative performance of healthcare versus financials. On a six month horizon, DM will underperform EM. Within Europe, overweight Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic, but…

Neutral As a wholly domestic industry, the S&P health care facilities index is well insulated from trade tremors that have been shaking the broad market this year. It is thus understandable that the index has been rallying in 2018. Still, as a particularly labor-intensive industry, rising…

Highlights The long term direction for the pound is higher... ...but as the EU withdrawal bill passes through the U.K. parliament, expect a very hairy ride. The stock markets in Norway, Sweden and Denmark are driven by energy, industrials, and biotech respectively. Upgrade Sweden to neutral…

Highlights Prediction 1: A major financial downturn will trigger the next major economic downturn, and not the other way round. Prediction 2: The straw that will break the back of a fragile financial system will be the global long bond yield rising by 60 bps within a short space of time. But…

Following up from our inaugural U.S. Equity Market Indicators Report in early-August 2017, this week we introduce the second part in our Indicators series. In this Special Report we have drilled down to the ten GICS1 S&P 500 sectors (excluding the real estate sector) and have compiled the most…

Please note that our next publication will be a joint special report with BCA’s Geopolitical Service that will be published on Wednesday, August 1st instead of our usual Monday publishing schedule. Further, there will be no publication on Monday, August 6th. We will be returning to our normal…

Highlights Subdued long-term inflation expectations and central bank bond purchases have suppressed the term premium. This is set to change, as quantitative easing turns into quantitative tightening and shrinking output gaps around the world start to push up inflation. The neutral rate in the…

Neutral As noted in yesterday's Daily Insight, we lifted the S&P pharma and biotech indexes to neutral earlier this month. These sectors command roughly a 50% weighting in the S&P health care sector and, accordingly, the July 3rd upgrade to a benchmark allocation in both of these sub-…

Neutral In our July 3rd Weekly Report, we made good on our recent upgrade alerts and raised the S&P pharma and biotech groups to neutral from underweight, locking in relative gains of 14.5% and 13.9%, respectively. In our report, we highlighted five key drivers for our more sanguine view,…