Health Care
Housekeeping…
Highlights Social distancing must persist to prevent dangerous super-spreading of COVID-19. The jobs recovery will be much weaker than the output recovery, because the sectors most hurt by social distancing have a very high labour intensity. This will force a prolonged period of ultra-…
Healthcare Is A Winner When Inflation Rises…
The COVID-19 induced recession has accelerated several paradigm shifts that were already afoot. Populism, anti-immigrant sentiment, deglobalization, and fiscal profligacy were replete – particularly in the US – even before the pandemic. For the first time since WWII, the US budget deficit…
Overweight (Downgrade Alert) We have been overweight the S&P biotech index and adding alpha to our portfolio in the double digits since February 2019. While a few technology sectors and subsectors have come close to vaulting to fresh all-time highs in absolute terms, none other than the S…
Highlights Investment Grade Sector Valuation: Our investment grade corporate bond sector valuation models for the US, euro area, UK, Canada and Australia show some common messages, as markets have adjusted to a virus-stricken world. The most attractive valuations can be found within Energy and…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The Fed’s extremely easy monetary backdrop along with easy fiscal policy remain the dominant macro themes, and they will continue to underpin the equity market. We remain constructive on the equity market’s prospects on a cyclical 9-12 month time horizon. While…
Highlights German bunds and Swiss bonds are no longer haven assets. The haven assets are the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and US T-bonds. Gold is less effective as a haven asset. During this year’s coronavirus crash, the gold price fell by -7 percent. As such, our haven asset of choice for a…
Neutral On Monday’s Weekly Report we put the S&P managed health care index on downgrade alert and instituted a 5% rolling stop on the position in order to protect gains for our portfolio. This downgrade alert reflected the following rising risks: First, that rising unemployment will weigh on…
Prepare To Crystalize Gains In HMOs…