As we highlighted in a recent Insight, the stronger-than-anticipated improvement in German factory orders should be viewed with some degree of caution. Germany is the European economy most exposed to the global manufacturing…
August brought some respite for German factories struggling with poor demand this year. After falling by 11.3% m/m in the prior month, German factory orders rebounded by 3.9% m/m in August – beating expectations of a 1.5% m…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the EU carbon tax – aka Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – launched Sunday will lead to higher inflation in the medium term (3-5…
The EU’s transition to a carbon tax launched this week via its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanics (CBAM) will lead to higher inflation in the medium term (3 – 5 years out), and will stoke consumer (i.e., voter) antipathy if it…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Mediterranean bloc’s move from current account deficit to current account surplus nations greatly limits the risk of a new sovereign debt crisis…
German inflation delivered an optimistic signal about the disinflation trend on Thursday. The headline CPI EU harmonized index collapsed from 6.4% y/y to 4.3% y/y in September– its lowest level since September 2021 and…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, energy stocks are an appealing overweight as a hedge against oil supply cuts. For now, the earnings of the energy sector continue to lag that of the broad…
The message from the German Ifo is that although business sentiment continues to weaken, the pace of deterioration slowed in September and appears to be in the process of bottoming. The Business Climate Index’s marginal…