According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, lower valuation readings in Chinese equities are justified by fundamentals. In absolute terms, valuations of both A-shares and investable stocks are…
The CRB Raw Industrials Price Index has been relatively stable over most of 2023. To the extent that the index contains non-tradable raw materials such as burlap, hide, rosin, and tallow, it is less influenced by speculative…
The Euro Area’s industrial production figures for July sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday. The 1.1% m/m decline in output fell below expectations of a smaller 0.9% m/m decrease. On a year-over-year basis, IP…
While Chinese stocks have low valuations and are oversold, their attractiveness is dampened by uncertainties in the magnitude of stimulus and the dismal outlook for corporate profits in the next six to nine months.
Recent Chinese economic data show some signs of stabilization. China’s credit expansion surprised to the upside in August. Aggregate social financing totaled CNY3.12 trillion – above expectations of CNY2.69…
The Chinese yuan fell to its lowest in nearly 16 years vis-à-vis the US dollar on Thursday following the release of Chinese trade data. Although the pace of export contraction slowed from 14.5% to 8.8% y/y in August (and…
If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Yet, neither Chinese authorities, nor the Fed or the ECB will be quick to come to the rescue as…
The CCP’s fiscal measures and property-market support are important steps to deal with China’s liquidity trap. The fiscal measures are the first such direct aid to households and small firms seen since 2020, which included tax relief…
The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions, ASEAN and Europe, are struggling…
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the US economy, US stocks, and China’s contribution to global growth. On the outlook for the US economy…