Chinese economic data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. GDP expanded by 4.9% y/y in Q3 – beating expectations of a 4.5% y/y rise. On a quarterly basis, economic activity accelerated from 0.5% q/q to 1.3% q/q –…
On the surface, the slower pace of contraction in Chinese exports in September is a positive signal for global trade. The 6.2% y/y drop in the dollar value of Chinese exports was not as bad as the 8% y/y decline anticipated or…
On the surface, Chinese credit data sent a positive signal about the domestic economy. Chinese aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.1 trillion in September – exceeding both August’s CNY 3.1 trillion and…
As global financial institutions like the IMF draw attention to the real-estate crisis in China, the CCP will be forced to step up regulatory and restructuring efforts to contain its spread and limit further contagion domestically…
Dovish comments by several Fed officials contributed to a Treasury rally and improvement in sentiment towards risk assets on Tuesday. Globally, rumors that Beijing is planning to unleash more stimulus supported Chinese financial…
The Caixin and NBS PMIs sent mixed signals about Chinese economic conditions in September. The NBS results surprised to the upside on the back of slightly greater-than-anticipated increases in both the manufacturing (+0.5 to…
Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven…
The bear market in US bonds will likely end with a bang rather than a whimper. Even during the secular US bond bull market of 1982-2021, cyclical bond bear markets ended only after an eruption of financial turmoil. It would be…
The unexpected increase in Chinese industrial profits in August sent a positive signal about the economy. Industrial profits posted its first year-over-year increase since the second half of last year, surging by 17.2% y/y…