Labor Market
Kevin Warshは連邦準備制度理事会に対する野心的な改革案を発表した。本稿では、その潜在的な影響と金利の現時点での見通しを検討する。
South Africa’s ambitious reform agenda will take time to bear fruit. Meanwhile, the country faces a stagflationary squeeze as inflation rises while growth slows. South African stocks, bonds, and currency are all vulnerable.
May CPI data show no evidence of passthrough from energy prices to core inflation. This will keep the Fed on hold for the time being.
Our US Investment strategists expect consumption to maintain its expansion-consistent pace, though households remain exposed to any material equity-market decline. Consumption is still growing near a 7.7% annualized nominal pace, while real disposable income…
The May NFIB survey missed estimates and pointed to softer small-business conditions, though the signal on the broader labor market remains mixed. The headline index fell to 95.3 from 95.9. The overall picture was soft, with both capex and hiring intentions…
家計が保有する株式の価値が数十年にわたって急騰したことで、米国の経済活動は株式の急落に対してより脆弱になったが、最新の所得、支出、雇用データは消費の伸びがインフレ調整後で年率2%のペースで続くことを示唆している。
The blowout US payrolls report reinforces improving labor market momentum and upside risks to Fed policy, arguing for continued caution on duration. Non-farm payrolls rose 172k, well-above expectations of 88k, while the prior two months were revised sharply…
Canada’s labor market is showing early signs of stabilization, but not sufficient for the Bank of Canada to begin raising rates. Employment increased by 88k in May, well above expectations of 10k, led by a jump in full-time employment, while the unemployment…
JOLTSのサプライズ：見かけほどではない
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Our Counterpoint strategists argue AI will not make the human brain obsolete. AI can replicate parts of our brain’s neocortex, which supports logic, reasoning, mathematics, and other IQ-driven tasks, but it lacks the limbic system that generates emotion and…