Inflation/Deflation

FICC

2024 Key Views: US Fixed Income

特別レポート

Our US fixed income team’s key investment views for 2024.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Bonds

CoreMacro

Strategy Outlook – 2024 Key Views: Here Comes The Kink

Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.

2 年 2 年間 ago

Global AI

Essentials

US Jobs Data Deliver A Positive Surprise

The US employment report delivered a positive surprise on Friday. Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from 150 thousand to 199 thousand in November, beating expectations of 185 thousand. Importantly, the favorable result was corroborated by the unemployment…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

UK Households See Inflation Easing Over Near Term, Still Skeptical Over Longer Term

The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in the August survey and the lowest…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

Receding Inflation Boosts US Household Sentiment

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent an optimistic signal about the attitude of the US consumer on Friday, handily beating consensus estimates across the board. The preliminary headline index came in at 69.4, up from 62.0 in November, surprising…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

The Key Macro Theme for China In 2024

The global investment community has become well aware of many problems facing the Chinese economy including real estate excesses, policymakers’ reluctance to stimulate, as well as elevated debt levels among local governments, enterprises, and consumers. …

2 年 2 年間 ago

GeoMacro

Key Views: US Politics In 2024

Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.

2 年 2 年間 ago

China

Essentials

Fade The Positive Surprise From Chinese Exports

On the surface, Chinese export data delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, painting a favorable picture of the global manufacturing cycle. Exports unexpectedly grew on a year-over-year basis in November for the first time since April. The 0.5% y/y…

2 年 2 年間 ago

Essentials

The US Jobs Report, And What Will Trigger The Joshi Rule Recession Indicator

The ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator signals the start of a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate of ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’ rises by 0.20 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. The…

2 年 2 年間 ago

CoreMacro

2024 Key Views: China Is In A Deflationary Trap

特別レポート

The overarching macro theme for China in 2024 will be deflation and its impact on the economy, macro policies, and financial markets. Widespread deflation, in combination with high debt levels and falling real estate prices, has unleashed debt deflation and balance sheet recession dynamics. The latter are rendering monetary policy inefficient.

2 年 2 年間 ago

China Emerging Markets

Inflation/Deflation

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