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2024 Key Views: China Is In A Deflationary Trap

by Arthur Budaghyan, Head of CoreMacro  

The overarching macro theme for China in 2024 will be deflation and its impact on the economy, macro policies, and financial markets. Widespread deflation, in combination with high debt levels and falling real estate prices, has unleashed debt deflation and balance sheet recession dynamics. The latter are rendering monetary policy inefficient.

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