Fixed Income
11月の求人数は再び予想を上回り、10月の780万件から810万件に増加しました。しかし、採用数と自発的離職は減少し、解雇は増加しました。労働市場の需要の先行指標である退職と解雇の差は縮小しました。労働需要と供給の差である雇用ギャップはわずかにプラス圏に留まっており、労働市場は冷え込んでいることを示しています。…
The December ISM Services PMI beat estimates, increasing to 54.1 from 52.1 in November. All subcomponents increased except for employment, which nonetheless remains in expansion. The prices paid component was especially strong, increasing to 64.4 from 58.2.…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists published their monthly tactical asset allocation report, where they illustrate booming expectations in the US will be self-limiting. For the first time since 2022, US GDP growth is expected to start the year above 2%,…
The euro broke the support level of its 2-year trading range against the USD, extending the strong dollar trend witnessed since September of last year. This trend will continue in Q1 2025. Despite global yields rallying in late 2024, the Bund-Treasury spread…
Our US Bond Strategy team published their outlook for the Fed in 2025. They expect more cuts than the 50 bps signaled by the Fed at its December meeting. Core PCE inflation is tracking well below the Fed’s 2.5% forecast, while unemployment could exceed the…
Paradoxically, raging optimism on the US economy is making a reacceleration in growth less likely in 2025. The reaction of the bond market has made the Fed rethink its cutting campaign. Markets are also constraining Trump’s agenda. US manufacturing will not recover with a surging dollar. Fears of inflation and debt sustainability have made moderate House Republicans push back against the President Elect’s wishes. Given the sky-high optimism embedded in asset prices, we believe a defensive portfolio stance is warranted on a 12-month horizon. Overweight gold to hedge the risk of a fiscal crisis.
Our outlook for Fed policy in 2025 discusses our expectations for interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and the 2025 strategic review.
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists upheld their yearly tradition of putting together reading or listening recommendations for the holiday period. This year, our strategists and research teams sent their best recommendations for academic work that has…
European sentiment data was mixed. The December Ifo Business Climate index for Germany missed estimates and was down 1 point to 84.7 from November. The decrease came from its expectations component, which fell to 84.4 from 87.2. Meanwhile, the December ZEW…