株式

Countertrend buy triggers have been activated for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond.

President Trump imposed tariffs on the world in his first 100 days, as we expected. Tariffs may have catalyzed a recession in the US, given the weakness in consumer sentiment and demand. Trump will soon backpedal and grant exemptions to countries that are negotiating, which he will showcase as proofs of his successful trade policy. While he may backpedal on his tariffs on other countries, China is not likely to receive the same treatment due to the US-China strategic competition. 

Equities will find a bottom when the full effects of tariffs on earnings and economic growth are priced in. The bottom of the market appears a long way away, and the S&P 500 may end up as low as 4,300, barring any reversals in trade policy that could undo the damage.

ポストCOVIDの景気拡大を支えた景気刺激策は5年を経て勢いを失い始め、経済は自然に発生する景気後退の方向に向かっていました。DOGEと多方面にわたる貿易戦争がそのタイムテーブルを前倒しした今、我々は改めてリスクオフの推奨を表明します。

Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.

This week, our three screeners cover: Equity plays in Low Vol & Low Beta outside the US; Chinese stocks; and stocks that are buys according to the PEG ratio.