景気後退 - ハードランディング/ソフトランディング
We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat expectations, jumping to 105.1 from 101.7 in November. Most index subcomponents increased, led by measure of expectations, notably for the state of the economy and real sales. After jumping 39 percentage…
Our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) team believes the US economy is not as strong as commonly believed, and that equity valuations offer little buffer given the risk of incoming macro shocks. The US economy is more fragile than it appears, with risks from…
The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates on Friday, driven by a cooling of consumer expectations. Worryingly, both the 1-year and 5-to-10 year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3% from 2.8% and 3.0%,…
The US December jobs report came in stronger than expected. Payrolls rose by 256k vs. a downwardly revised 212k in November, leaving the 3-month moving average at about 170k. The unemployment and underemployment rates decreased to 4.1% (from 4.2%) and 7.5%…
11月の求人数は再び予想を上回り、10月の780万件から810万件に増加しました。しかし、採用数と自発的離職は減少し、解雇は増加しました。労働市場の需要の先行指標である退職と解雇の差は縮小しました。労働需要と供給の差である雇用ギャップはわずかにプラス圏に留まっており、労働市場は冷え込んでいることを示しています。…
Our European Investment Strategy team published their annual outlook, outlining five key themes that will shape Europe’s economy and markets in 2025. Europe will enter a mild recession in H1 2025, but growth is expected to rebound quickly in the second half.…
The post-COVID US recovery was different from previous cycles. Despite an ebullient economy, US consumers and firms have just not been feeling it, as reflected by the depressed signals from so-called soft, survey-based indicators. The main reason behind this…
For our last publication of the year, we explore five key themes that will dominate the European macro landscape and markets next year. While the start of 2025 will be challenging for European assets, the latter part will offer some much-needed relief.