インドネシア

インドネシアの政策緩和は国内需要を押し上げるが、インフレを助長します。経常収支赤字は拡大し、ルピアは下落するでしょう。ルピアをショートで維持し、インドネシア株、国内債券、ソブリン信用をそれぞれの新興市場ポートフォリオでアンダーウェイトにしてください。

このチャートブックでは、先進国（DM）および新興国（EM）の各国の国際収支を検討します。米国の状況は良くありませんが、他のいくつかの国も同様です。

There is an ongoing regime shift in Indonesia: SOEs will be used to drive economic growth. Bank loans will accelerate, but their profit margins will shrink. Despite higher nominal growth, Indonesian equity prices in US dollar terms will not see a sustainable bull market. Downside risks to currency and upside risks to domestic bond yields have also increased.

The ongoing rally in ASEAN currencies will fizzle sooner rather than later as they are not supported by fundamentals. The ringgit and the baht, however, will fare better than the peso and the rupiah during the coming global risk-off period. This report explains why.

A major slowdown in nominal growth was behind Indonesia’s recent stock underperformance. Dedicated EM equity portfolios should upgrade Indonesian stocks from underweight to neutral. We also recommend a new relative trade: go long Indonesian banks / short EM banks.

ASEAN stocks and currencies will weaken further as these economies face multiple headwinds. Raising policy rates did not stop a sliding currency in the past, it is unlikely to do so now.