Populismo/Desigualdad
La victoria electoral de Alternative for Germany en el estado de Sajonia-Anhalt está sobrevalorada.
Estados Unidos está listo para un tercer partido político importante, pero es probable que el sistema bipartidista prevalezca en las elecciones de 2028. El contexto macro determinará si Estados Unidos elige a un populista de izquierda.
Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.
The rise of the far-right is challenging mainstream German politics. The CDU/CSU and SPD will govern Germany again after the election. A ceasefire in Ukraine will offer some relief, but Trump’s policies will keep tensions high.
Our quant model shows Democrats winning the election at a 56% probability, with 303 electoral college votes. But swing state economies are slowing and Democrats’ odds in Michigan fell. Trump can win with Georgia, Michigan, plus one other state. Neither the Fed nor China’s stimulus should reduce one’s odds of a Republican upset.
Democrats will not win a full sweep and implement drastic new tax hikes. However, our quant model still favors them to win the White House and just upgraded their odds. While we expect equity volatility around the election, investors do not need to worry about corporate tax hikes.
