Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Inflation/Deflation

f_image_20240530_115833.PNG
Alarm Bells For Biden

Favor defensive sectors, low-beta assets, and long-duration bonds until the election uncertainty is lifted one way or another over the next five months.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
A Soft Landing For The Labor Market Is Unlikely
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, there is only a narrow path to a soft landing. Our colleagues estimate a mere 20% chance that the US will avoid a recession before the end of 2025. The US unemployment rate is a highly…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240524_180912.PNG
What To Expect When You’re Expecting A Recession

The signs of an approaching recession are starting to emerge. We will turn tactically defensive once they all fall into place.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
f_image_20240524_155723.PNG
The Narrow Path To A Soft Landing

There is a path to a soft landing, but it is a narrow one. We estimate that there is only a 20% chance that the US will avoid a recession before the end of 2025. We are currently neutral on global equities, but expect to downgrade stocks to underweight during the summer.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
RBNZ: The Next Dove?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept interest rates on hold at this week’s monetary policy meeting, in line with expectations. However, there were three new notes from its monetary policy statement that will likely affect how it approaches future…
Daily Insights
Hawkish Concerns From FOMC Minutes Are Likely Overblown
Minutes from the April 30 - May 1 FOMC meeting struck a hawkish tone on the latest discussions among Fed officials. Notably, the reference to “Various participants mention[ing] a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240522_213315.PNG
New Zealand: The Rising Case For A Rate Cut

In this Insight, we revisit our "higher for longer" theme for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in light of the latest central bank meeting. In conclusion, we are inching towards a more dovish RBNZ ahead. Ergo, we recommend some fixed income and currency trades.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Hot UK CPI Pushes Back On Summer Rate Cut
The UK CPI release surprised markets to the upside across the board on Wednesday. Headline CPI increased 2.3% year-on-year, above expectations of 2.1%. Core surprised to the upside as well, moderating from 4.2% to 3.9%y/y, less than the moderation embedded in…
Daily Insights
Ebbing Canadian Inflation Opens Door To Summer Rate Cut
Canada’s headline CPI inflation decelerated in April from 2.9% y/y to 2.7% y/y. Notably, core median CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to a softer-than-anticipated 2.6% y/y and core trimmed-mean CPI ticked lower from 3.2% to 2.9%. Food and durable goods led the…
Daily Insights
China's Property Rescue Package Is No Game Changer
Several economic releases out of China disappointed in April. Retail sales decelerated from 3.1% y/y to 2.3% y/y and fixed asset investment growth slowed from 4.5% YTD y/y to 4.2% YTD y/y. Both were expected to accelerate. Although industrial production…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics