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High-Yield

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Recession Required For More Curve Steepening

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
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Defaults Have Peaked, But Corporate Spreads Are Still Expensive

We update our corporate default rate model and consider the implications for corporate bond spreads.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Refinancing Needs Are A Eurozone High Yield Headwind
The pro-cyclical Eurozone economy is highly exposed to a global downturn, which we expect will materialize by early 2025. The ECB is behind the curve and we thus expect it to ease more aggressively than markets expect next year. A dovish surprise in 2025…
Daily Insights
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Cuts Are Coming, But At What Pace?

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
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Tracking Labor Market Momentum

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
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Municipal Bonds: Are The Higher Yields Worth It?

We calculate expected returns for several different US fixed income sectors with a focus on how municipal bonds stack up against the investment alternatives.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Trump Versus Macro

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
High-Yield Downgrades Foreshadow Broader Deterioration
Corporate and junk bonds are the fixed-income sectors that are most exposed to an economic downturn. We’ve highlighted that markets continue to price in a Goldilocks scenario, with spreads narrowing despite ongoing deterioration in the labor market. Spreads…
Daily Insights
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Looking For Two Cuts This Year

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Assessing The State Of Corporate Balance Sheets

Nonfinancial corporate balance sheets are generally in good shape, but there are signs of deterioration at the bottom-end of the credit spectrum. We present evidence showing that credit deterioration at the bottom-end of the credit spectrum has a habit of migrating upwards.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper

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