Business Cycles
In this insight, we look at whether the recent data justifies a shift by the BoC, and some potential trades.
The European Commission's preliminary release for Consumer Confidence painted a murky picture for consumer sentiment on Monday. The headline print of -17.9 was largely unchanged from the previous month's print of -17.8, but beat expectations of -18.3.…
China's CSI 300 equity index fell below its March 2020 pandemic low on Monday, bringing its loss since the February 2021 peak to -40%. Similarly, BCA Research's market-based China growth indicator – a broader measure of the performance of Chinese financial…
This year's rally in US equities has for the most part been narrow in breadth. The 19.5% increase in the S&P 500's price index in the first seven months of the year exceeds the equal weighted index's 9.5% gain over the same period. Since then, the S&P…
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service studied the SIFIs’ earnings calls for insights into borrower performance, lender willingness, liquidity and the actions and intentions of households and businesses. Nothing in the banks’ commentary…
German producer prices declined by a new record 14.7% y/y in September, broadly in line with expectations of -14.1% y/y and a steeper pace of contraction than August's -12.6% y/y. Meanwhile, the monthly rate of change returned to contraction (-0.2% m/m)…
Earlier this year we highlighted that China's property market dynamics pose a greater risk to the price of steel vis-à-vis copper. This view was based on the expectation that Chinese policymakers will direct financing towards the completion of unfinished and…
According to BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service, the global economy will stay buoyant over the next few quarters but will then sour as the lagged effects of higher interest rates and tighter bank lending standards work their way through the…
There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index's 0.7% m/m decline in September sent a weaker-than-anticipated signal about the outlook for the US economy. It fell below anticipations that the pace of decline would remain unchanged at -0.4% m/m and marks the…