Is California The Canary In The Coalmine?

California and Technology are currently in a downturn but is not apparent from the performance of the NASDAQ. On its own, the job losses in the Tech sector are not significant enough to precipitate a US recession. However, when coupled with direct and indirect spill-over effects into other service sectors, the impact on consumption could trigger a recession. In North America, we are overweight Venture Capital and Private Credit, becoming more optimistic on CRE, and underweight Private Equity.