After considering some of the most common bullish arguments, we stand by our recession view and reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations....
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash....
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash....
In Section I, Doug warns that US trade policy may produce a considerably worse outcome than investors currently expect. The administration’s apparent 10% tariff baseline is likely to be negative for the US economy and particularly the small business sector. Investors should remain defensively positi...
In Section II, Jonathan discusses the arguments in favor and against the view that US inflation will be structurally elevated over the longer term. Our base case view remains that US inflation will not be significantly above 2%, but this view may change if US tariffs are put in place permanently and...
Global currency markets have entered a new era. This implies that the framework for analyzing exchange rates must also change. We introduce a new framework for analyzing EM currencies and classify them into resilient and vulnerable categories. Finally, we are adding more EM domestic bonds to our por...
President Trump faces new restrictions on his trade powers coming from the US judicial branch, but they will not prevent him from continuing to restrict trade and investment with China. Rather, they will establish some curbs against entirely arbitrary executive tariffs, especially when wielded again...
On September 11, 1990, President George H. W. Bush addressed a joint session of Congress. The speech – which has come to be known as the “New World Order” address – referenced the emergence of a new geopolitical paradigm. While Bush Sr. was rather vague about what that paradigm was, his national sec...
