Insights

BCA美国政治与地缘政治副主编马语书的中文网络直播:《地缘政治与美国政治二季度展望》。

• 伊朗冲突接下来将如何演变？当前的暂时停火能持续多久？
• 特朗普的约束与承受阈值在哪里？
• 中期选举将如何影响美国的外交政策决策？
• 中东的地缘政治紧张局势是否可能进一步扩散？对其他地区有何影响？
• 持续的地缘政治风险和政策不确定性，对投资有何启示？

In this webcast, BCA Research Chief Strategists, Mathieu Savary, Robert Timper, Jeremie Peloso and Artem Sakhbiev discussed the following:

• Oil: Temporary buffers are masking a looming oil deficit that could trigger a global recession.
• Inflation: The shock is stagflationary, but weaker labor markets limit second-round inflation risks.
• Policy: Central banks are likely to look through inflation short term, then pivot to growth concerns.
• FX: Terms-of-trade dynamics favor USD and commodity exporters over energy importers.
• Markets: Bonds offer asymmetric upside; equities and FX remain driven by energy exposure and policy repricing.

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 1

Noah and Jason discussed:

• The foundations of our constructive outlook and 7700 year-end S&P 500 target
• The capex outlook and its implications
• Do valuations represent a meaningful constraint?
• Tensions and opportunities between market pricing and the state of the cycle
• What a US recession could mean for equities
• Middle East tensions: potential paths to resolution and market implications
• Sector positioning for 2026