Global Macro & Investment Outlook
See how the global macro regime is shifting and what it means for markets, risk, and portfolio positioning.
Higher Yields, Better Bets?
The global bond selloff is not over, but opportunities are emerging. US Treasuries and French OATs remain vulnerable to further selling, while other European government bonds look increasingly attract…
Dispatches From The Future: World War E
In 2026, against the backdrop of plunging birth rates around the world, investors were focused on AI bottlenecks. Little did they know that the biggest bottleneck to artificial intelligence was, ironi…
The Bond Riot, The AI Peak, And The EM Mirage
US bonds will likely continue selling off until tighter financial conditions – most plausibly a double-digit decline in the S&P 500 – cool nominal growth. Higher discount rates will threaten US equity…
Central Bank Monitor Update: The Limits Of The New Tightening Cycle
Central banks have begun a mild tightening cycle as elevated energy prices raise concerns about second-round inflation effects. We use BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to test whether hawkish market pricin…
Chief Economist’s View: Will Worries About AI Doom End the AI Boom?
Concerns by the major AI companies that they are locked into a financially unsustainable arms race for AI dominance are likely playing as much a role in their newfound “go slow” approach as concerns o…
Bessent Can't Have It All
Scott Bessent’s attempts to suppress yields while financing large twin deficits risk crashing foreign inflows, the dollar, US bonds, and equities. Without a major equity selloff or large-scale commerc…
