European Macro & Market Outlook
Navigate European markets, uncover opportunities, and generate alpha.
European Equities Ain’t So Bad After All
Europe was shunned while AI could do no wrong. That trade is looking tired. Falling energy prices and cracks in the AI boom favor rotating out of US equities and into cheaper European stocks. Favor de…
Europe is Doomed
Europe faces deep structural problems. Dismantling large parts of the welfare state might be necessary to rectify these problems, which is unlikely to happen before there is a major crisis. Until then…
Have We Seen Le Peak Yet In French Yields?
France’s fiscal mess is far from over, but the bond vigilantes may have gotten ahead of themselves. We book profits on short OATs, eyeing another opportunity in early 2027 as election risks resurface.…
Buy Europe
Europe has 99 problems, but the paucity of bearish views about the Old Continent is not one of them! And yet, somewhat shockingly, European assets have outperformed US assets over the past two years.…
France: The Powder Keg Ignites
Forced selling may be approaching a pause, but France’s fiscal and political adjustment has barely begun. Maintain an underweight in OATs and use relief rallies to reduce exposure. Contained contagion…
China Shock 2.0: Europe Strikes Back
China shock 2.0 threatens Europe’s industrial core, but it is also forcing a long-overdue response. China stands to lose more than the EU from the coming confrontation. Beijing cannot afford to aliena…
