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Inflation/Deflation

Essentials
Strong Consumer Confidence Increases Odds Of A “No-Landing”
Consumer confidence came in as expected in November, with The Conference Board’s index rising to 111.7 from 108.7 in October, a level not seen since August 2023. Both the assessment of consumers’ present and future situation drove the increase. The Conference…
1 year ago
Essentials
Treasuries Trace A Line In The Sand For Equities
After fueling the USD rally, price action from the past few weeks suggests Treasury yields might limit US equities’ upside. Following the post-COVID inflation, stocks and bond yields were negatively correlated, reflecting markets' inflation concerns. However,…
1 year ago
Essentials
Hot UK CPI Won’t Cool BoE Easing Intentions
UK inflation was hotter than expected in October, rising to 0.6% m/m from being flat in September. Core inflation also ticked up, printing at 3.3% y/y vs. 3.2% a month prior. Services inflation remains elevated at 5.0% y/y. We do not expect these elevated…
1 year ago
Essentials
Canadian CPI Will Allow BoC To Stay The Course
Canadian inflation was slightly hotter than expected in October, re-accelerating to 2.0% y/y from 1.6% in September. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, re-accelerated to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, and CPI-common rebounded to 2.2%. CPI…
1 year ago
Essentials
Assessing Our Equity Views
As talks of a market “meltup” abound, we used last Friday’s edition of our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting to assess our asset allocation recommendations. Our House View has been underweight equities since March, a recommendation reinforced by two of our most…
1 year ago
Essentials
US: Expect Disinflation To Continue
US CPI inflation for October printed in line with expectations and was unchanged from September, with headline at 0.2% month-over-month and core at 0.3%. Headline re-accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4% on an annual basis, and core stayed steady at 3.3%. This report…
1 year ago
FICC
A Good Time To Short TIPS

We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI release, concluding that TIPS breakeven inflation rates have room to fall.

Ryan Swift
1 year ago
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FICC
Tracking The Trump Trade

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2024.

Ryan Swift
1 year ago
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GeoMacro
Trump's Historic Comeback: What Catches Our Eye
Special Report

Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in the House of Representatives. Foreign policy will become more unilateral, with US assets outperforming initially.

Matt Gertken
1 year ago
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GeoMacro
Trump’s Historic Comeback: What Catches Our Eye
Special Report

Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in the House of Representatives. Foreign policy will become more unilateral, with US assets outperforming initially.

Matt Gertken
1 year ago
Trump's PoliciesElections

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